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How Russo-Turkish-Iranian Talks May Help Fix Regional Problems, Set Stage for Global Transformation_我的网站

A |     "The [Putin visit to Iran] is quite important in every sense in the geopolitical, geo-economic, and other aspects," explained Dr. Kerim Has, a political analyst of Russian and Eurasian affairs. "It is the first foreign visit of President Putin out of post-Soviet territory after February 24… We should underline that Mr. Erdogan will be the first NATO country leader who meets with Putin after February 24.",Russo-Iranian cooperation is of particular relevance in the light of western sanctions imposed by the US and its NATO allies on Tehran and Moscow. Russia has been subjected to unprecedented sanctions since the beginning of its special military operation to demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine.,However, Moscow and Tehran have already demonstrated resilience and an ability to weather sweeping restrictions and "maximum pressure" from the West, with the policy currently reported to be backfiring in the form of galloping energy prices that accelerated already skyrocketing inflation.,"The fact that both countries are now sanctioned provides an opportunity for the two sides to cooperate with each other without fear of sanctions," said Mohammad Marandi, a professor at Tehran University who was part of the Iranian delegation that helped negotiate the 2015 nuclear deal. "The establishment of a North-South Transport Corridor and investments for both Iran and Russia [are also important]… The new trade route will allow Iran to have access to the whole of the Russian market much more quickly and extensively. And it will also give Russia access to the Iranian market, but also the Indian subcontinent and East Africa as well.",Putin Praises Record-High Trade Turnover With Iran at Meeting With Raisi14:12 GMT,Astana Platform Expands Its Relevance,Alongside Turkey, the two countries form the trilateral Astana platform that was created in 2015 to facilitate a peaceful settlement between Damascus and the Syrian opposition. Currently, the format has been chosen to cover a whole range of regional issues concerning Russia, Iran and Turkey, according to Has.,Turkey plays a unique role in the trilateral format as it is a member of NATO, which has proclaimed Russia and China as the bloc's adversaries. Nonetheless, Ankara has not only refused to join anti-Russia sanctions but is stepping up cooperation with Moscow, the political analyst highlighted.,"Many Turkish companies are replacing western companies in Russia which left the country after February 24," he said. "Some of the western companies which left Russia, are also trying to have new locations around the region. And one of those locations is Istanbul or Turkish cities [where] they are trying to create logistic centers. So, Turkey has the possibility to become a hub for Russia's foreign trade relations.",In these circumstances, Russia, Iran and Turkey's longstanding efforts to shift away from the US dollar and switch to national currencies for trade will have immediate practical application, the analyst explained.,Net trade between Russia and Iran mounted over $4 billion in 2021, up 31% in the past several months. Likewise, bilateral trade turnover between Russia and Turkey reached $33 billion in 2021 and continued to rise in 2022 regardless of sanctions. Speaking to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in June 2022, his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu highlighted that Russo-Turkish trade turnover had risen a whopping 100% in April, compared to the previous year.,Talks on Grain Supplies From Ukraine Achieve Significant Progress, Source Says04:59 GMT,Solving Ukraine's Grain Dilemma,Russia and Turkey have yet another sensitive issue to discuss, Has noted, referring to grain shipments from Ukraine.,"Last week there was a meeting between Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the United Nations in Turkey," the political analyst informed. "There remain a few technical points [to finalize]. So probably Mr. Erdogan and Putin will discuss the issue and they will give their consent on signing such an agreement and probably in the following days in Turkey a new summit between Kiev, Moscow, Ankara and the United Nations will gather again.",Following the beginning of Moscow's special operation in Ukraine, western countries paralyzed Russia's food exports, while blaming Russia for an alleged blockade of grain shipments from Ukraine to "starve" the Global South. Moscow shot down the claim, calling the accusations a "bluff" and pointing out that Ukraine's role as a food commodity exporter is deliberately overestimated: the allegedly "blocked" 20 million tons of wheat constitute just 0.5 percent of the world's food supply. For its part, Russia is considered the world’s largest wheat exporter, providing more than 17% of all wheat sold in the global market while Ukraine's share amounts to roughly 10%.,In late May, the Russian Defense Ministry (MoD) arranged a safe maritime corridor for Ukraine's food exports. The Turkish leadership, which teamed up with Russia to ensure safe passage of ships in the Black Sea, said that the two major obstacles to grain exports are naval mines placed by the Kiev government in Ukraine's major ports and western sanctions slapped on Russian vessels in terms of insurance and the provision of services at international ports.,On June 30, the Russian Defense Ministry announced a troop withdrawal from Zmeiny Island (aka Snake Island) in the Odessa region as a gesture of goodwill. In doing so, Russia demonstrated that it had no intention to hinder UN efforts to maintain a corridor for the export of agricultural products from Ukraine. On July 13, Istanbul hosted the first consultations between representatives of the UN, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine on the issue of unblocking Ukrainian ports for the food exports. Officials are expected to meet again this week to discuss grain shipments via the Black Sea.,Global Power Shifting Away From West, While BRICS Expanding & Increasing Legitimacy14 July, 16:45 GMT,Russia, Iran & Turkey Cooperation Going Global,Vladimir Putin's meeting with the leaders of Iran and Turkey comes on the heels of Joe Biden's three-leg Middle Eastern trip to Jerusalem, the West Bank and Saudi Arabia. Biden's tour largely revolved around the issue of Saudi Arabia's oil production and the revival of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also referred to as the Iran nuclear deal. However, western mainstream press has admitted that the US president failed to make substantial progress on Middle Eastern security and energy during his trip.,Meanwhile, the JCPOA and Middle Eastern security are high on the Russo-Iranian-Turkish trilateral agenda.,"Iran and Russia both agree that the JCPOA must be revived with adequate assurances with the full removal of sanctions, that impede the full implementation of the JCPOA and since the US and the European maximum pressure sanctions have failed," explained Marandi. "It's going to be impossible for the Americans and the Europeans to impose a bad deal on Iran.",In addition, Turkish President Erdogan plans to discuss the latest developments in Syria with his Russian and Iranian counterparts. Syria, yet another Middle Eastern country suffering from crippling western sanctions, remains a focal point of regional security. According to Erdogan, "opportunities" for the region will be offered and discussed at the Astana process.,Moscow, Tehran and Ankara's cooperation has gone beyond the regional format, with Iran formally applying to join BRICS, a group of emerging countries comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Turkey may soon follow Iran's suit. In addition, Iran is expected to sign a permanent agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union on free trade zones.,According to Marandi, western sanctions have become the catalyst for the creation of alternative blocs, financial systems and settlements in local currencies.,"The fact that western countries are sanctioning so many different countries and now that they've added Russia, which is the largest country in the world, to the sanctions list, it creates an incentive for countries like China and others [like] India, Brazil and other players, big and small, to seek alternatives to the western financial system," the professor said. "It's essential for them to be able to continue trade and development without western governments impeding their progress. So I think we're going to see the decline of the US dollar, we're going to see the decline of the euro, we're going to see the gradual decline of western financial institutions, and it will be because of their own actions."。    8月24日，国际政坛召开了一场具有重要象征意义的援乌“志愿联盟”峰会，参与国增至37个，其中日本的出席显得尤为特别。

B | 这不仅让人看到了东京在亚太区域的角色，也反映出高市早苗首相在这一问题上的坚决态度。然而，这一变化无疑是日本外交政策的一次重大转变，涉及到对俄关系和地区安全的深远影响。    高市在峰会中毫不掩饰地向乌克兰总统泽连斯基致以敬意，甚至将俄罗斯称为“侵略者”，这在日本历任首相的涉俄表态中是前所未有的。在过去，日本的乌克兰政策一直保持着一条清晰的红线，只提供人道主义援助，而不直接卷入军事冲突。然而，现如今，这条线随着高市的言辞与行动已经模糊不清，表明日本正试图在援助与参战之间游走。        这一战略调整的背后，隐含着两方面的考量。

C | 一方面，高市早苗作为新任首相，急需通过强化对外政策来巩固自己的政治地位；另一方面，面对美国日益增长的压力，日本不得不在国际援助的框架内寻求更多的角色。

D | 美方长期以来的呼吁，要求盟国分担更多军费与物资支持，加剧了东京对乌政策的调整。而高市的举动似乎是在回应这一要求，同时也在寻求国内右翼势力的支持。    然而，这种政策转变并非没有风险。日本战后成立的宪法第九条对武力使用有着明确限制，这一和平条款曾是约束政府行为的重要法律基础。高市尝试通过行政决议的方式调整防卫装备转移政策，将乌克兰列入适用例外条款，这意味着她正在不断试探法律界限。一旦这一程序完成，未来的任何一届政府都可能寻求以类似的方式绕过立法审查，进一步削弱和平条款的实际约束力。    当然，日本在国内对这一政策的反应并不统一。

E | 右翼势力对于对俄强硬态度表示支持，认为这是国家正常化的机会。

F | 然而，普遍民众的态度却更显复杂。

G | 虽然他们对乌克兰的困境表示同情，但是否愿意承受与俄罗斯对抗的风险，则还需要进一步观察。

H | 尤其是考虑到，一旦俄罗斯启动反制措施，普通百姓将最直接地感受到其影响，这无疑对高市政权构成威胁。        从地缘政治的角度来看，高市面临的最大难题就是如何平衡对乌支持与自身安全问题。日本的战略安全关注主要集中在台海及半岛局势，而不是东欧的乌克兰。如果日本将有限的军事资源投入到乌克兰，势必会削弱其在亚太地区的防御能力，这是一个不容忽视的现实。此外，虽然欧洲国家欢迎日本在乌克兰事务上分担压力，但没有任何保证能够回馈日本安全保障。    更为严峻的是，当前情况下日籍前自卫队员的出现被许多人视若无物。然而，这实际上是高市政策的一部分，政府对这种现象的默许创造了一种危险的灰色地带。日本如果不能有效监管，参战的个人可能变成一种不可控的力量，破坏国家的内部稳定。    在这场国际博弈中，高市早苗本希望通过对俄强硬来提升自己在国内的政治能见度，但是她却忽略了一个关键点：面对核大国的持续敌意，单靠强硬姿态并不足以确保国安。日本并不具备单独面对俄罗斯威胁的能力。即使在战斗力上有所增强，但其在应对复杂局势时的脆弱性依然显而易见。        乌克兰总理邀请高市访问显示出基辅对日本政策的期待，这是一招深思熟虑的棋子。日本的最高领导人在基辅现身，意味着对对乌政策的官方背书，将反对声音置于尴尬境地。但是，从国利益出发，赴乌交流并没有带来切实的收益，反而可能加剧日本与俄罗斯间的敌对情绪。    高市的强硬立场或许能在短期内获得一定的声望与认同，但长远来看，她的政策基于错位的判断。

I | 日本并不能在没有付出直接代价的前提下参与全局性的对抗。事实上，俄罗斯在远东的军事存在虽然并未形成直接威胁，但其隐秘的报复机制同样能影响日本的国家安全与稳定。

J |     高市早苗的对俄政策尽管在形式上得到了其他国家的口头支持，但实际上日本在地缘政治中的处境比之前更加艰难。

K | 对抗的成本会随着时间的推移而显现，具体表现为能源供应、渔业谈判等方面的损失。当真正的后果浮出水面时，很可能高市面临的不仅是来自国内的压力，还有外部力量的重重围困。    在这个看似风平浪静的表象之下，隐藏的是波澜壮阔的暗流。高市以为自己掌控了局势，但实际上已置身于一个无出口的对抗通道之中。她的每一个选择都在外部力量的牵引下进行，停下脚步就意味着承认政策的失败。因此，伴随这一系列的动作、高市将继续加码，然而这样的选择终究也将消耗掉日本与俄罗斯之间最后的缓冲空间。返回，查看更多。

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